FYI: Spatially-downscaled climate projection datasets by Peter Jones (Waen Associates/CIAT), Philip Thornton (ILRI), and Jens Heinke (PIK) are now available to download at http://futureclim.info. The datasets currently include 5 arc-minute (a.k.a., 10 km) resolution, global coverage of three core variables (i.e., monthly rainfall, tmin, and tmax) and two derived variables (solar radiation and rainy days) for biophysical modeling applications, for four GCM’s (CNRM-CM3, CSIRO-Mk3.0, ECHam5, and MIROC 3.2), three emission scenarios (A1B, A2, B1) for two time slices (2030 and 2050).
By the way, please be aware that the consequences of misusing or misinterpreting climate projection data can be potentially very… harmful. If you have any question, please contact the authors. Even if you don’t have any question, we strongly encourage you to consult with the authors on the correct use and interpretation of the data and results in your research.
Jawoo (on behalf of HarvestChoice/IFPRI/CSI)
Characteristically Generated Monthly Climate Data using Downscaled Climate Model Data from the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment
Peter G Jones (firstname.lastname@example.org) | Waen Associates, Wales
Philip K Thornton (email@example.com) | International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI)
Jens Heinke (firstname.lastname@example.org) | Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)
This dataset was generated by a generalized downscaling (5 arc-minute) and data generation method that takes the outputs of a General Circulation Model and allows the stochastic generation of daily weather data that are to some extent characteristic of future climatologies. Such data can then be used to drive any impacts model that requires daily (or otherwise aggregated) weather data. A subset of the climate models and scenario runs carried out for 2007’s Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for two time slices (2030 and 2050) was used in this process.
These downscaled climate data are NOT predictions of what the future climate will be like in any place. They are projections of possible future climate, and should be treated with considerable caution. There is a great deal of variability between different climate models, between different greenhouse gas emission scenarios, and between different downscaling methods. It is not possible to infer anything meaningful from one climate model and one scenario: that is merely one replicate from the future (essentially unknown) probability distribution of future climates at any one place. Users should note that these data represent possible future climatologies in different places; the data say nothing about how climate variability may change in the future, and cannot be used to infer anything meaningful about this. If you are AT ALL unsure as to how these data can be used and how they cannot be used, please contact one of the authors.